The technology is glitchy and won t work in buildings. 5G does not operate at its best on a single spectrum. Imagine how an even seconds-long delay could affect the safety of your ride. Instead, it can be deployed on three main layers, each with its own strengths, which complement one another. It is also capable of supporting extended battery life for IoT devices, some up to 10 years. Low-band spectrum, typically a spectrum below 1GHz, can provide wide, consistent coverage that doesn t require a high data transfer but is critical to enabling nationwide 5G coverage, including in rural areas still struggling to connect to high-speed internet.
Next is mid-band spectrum usually between 1GHz and 6GHz a high-capacity, low-latency spectrum capable of handling use cases such as augmented reality, wearables, and critical IoT applications that need near-instantaneous data response rates. Unfortunately, most mid-band spectrum is unavailable for 5G because it s already in use for 4G LTE, and redeploying spectrum will take time. And at the top, there are the ultra-high frequencies, such as millimeter wave, typically a spectrum above 24GHz, which can be deployed to provide lightning-fast data speed, far greater capacity, quality, and low latency, but do not travel far, and can t penetrate buildings or even windows.
In practical deployments of mmWave spectrum, we ve seen cell ranges of anywhere between a couple hundred feet to maybe a thousand feet or so, Kuoppamaki says. While millimeter wave is very good for high traffic hot spots in an urban environment, Kuoppamaki says, in and of itself it s not the answer to 5G. However, most applications don t need ultra-high speeds; they need consistent coverage.
Lower frequencies are able to go through concrete walls and brick in a way a millimeter wave signal never could, says Sag. High frequencies also don t penetrate objects well, which has led to the belief that 5G doesn t work in buildings. Once the network is mature, the interplay of all three spectrums means you will be able to get more signal in more places than you ever could before. Sag noted that this will ultimately unlock new, innovative solutions for next-generation applications that require high-bandwidth, low latency and always-on connectivity such as self-driving cars and drone delivery.
5G won t be available for at least a couple years. People s biggest apprehension is that the technology is not ready but I think businesses should be constantly re-assessing whether 5G makes sense for them today, and constantly looking at what offerings are available in their area, Sag says. Things are changing so quickly; maybe 5G doesn t make sense for your business today, but there is a possibility that in five months the network will change drastically and it s now to your benefit to have 5G.
By the end of 2019, businesses and consumers will experience the first taste of what 5G is all about and what its capabilities are, Kuoppamaki says. In terms of rollout, history is a great teacher. The first 4G networks were launched about a decade ago; while the user experience was vastly superior to 3G, it took time for people and businesses to understand its capabilities.
That s the beauty of 5G it s a transformational power that may not be evident from day one but, once available everywhere, will start stimulating innovation very quickly, Kuoppamaki says. T-Mobile for Business brings the Un-carrier experience to customers unwilling to settle. Leading the 5G charge with a network built from the ground up for the next wave. Leading the 5G charge with a network built from the ground up for the next wave of innovation, we have businesses of all sizes ready for the future of wireless.
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2 3 According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, called intelligence explosion, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a runaway reaction of self-improvement cycles, each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an explosion in intelligence and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that qualitatively far surpasses all human intelligence. The first use of the concept of a singularity in the technological context was John von Neumann.
The technological singularity also, simply, the singularity 1 is a hypothetical point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization. Technological singularity. 4 Stanislaw Ulam reports a discussion with von Neumann centered on the accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.
The concept and the term singularity were popularized by Vernor Vinge in his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularityin which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030. 5 Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint.
Public figures such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk have expressed concern that full artificial intelligence AI could result in human extinction. 8 9 The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated. Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by Nick Bostrom and Vincent C. Müller, suggested a median probability estimate of 50 that artificial general intelligence AGI would be developed by 2040 2050.
1 Emergence of superintelligence 3. 2 Non-AI singularity 3. 3 Speed superintelligence 4 Plausibility 4. 1 Speed improvements 4. 1 Exponential growth 4. 2 Accelerating change 4. 2 Algorithm improvements 4. 3 Criticisms 5 Potential impacts 5. 1 Uncertainty and risk 5. 2 Next step of sociobiological evolution 5. 3 Implications for human society 6 Hard vs. soft takeoff 7 Immortality 8 History of the concept 9 In politics 10 See also 11 References 11.
2 Sources 12 Further reading 13 External links. 1 Background 2 Intelligence explosion 3 Other manifestations 3. Although technological progress has been accelerating, it has been limited by the basic intelligence of the human brain, which has not, according to Paul R. Ehrlich, changed significantly for millennia. 12 However, with the increasing power of computers and other technologies, it might eventually be possible to build a machine that is significantly more intelligent than humans.
If a superhuman intelligence were to be invented either through the amplification of human intelligence or through artificial intelligence it would bring to bear greater problem-solving and inventive skills than current humans are capable of. Such an AI is referred to as Seed AI 14 15 because if an AI were created with engineering capabilities that matched or surpassed those of its human creators, it would have the potential to autonomously improve its own software and hardware or design an even more capable machine.
This more capable machine could then go on to design a machine of yet greater capability. These iterations of recursive self-improvement could accelerate, potentially allowing enormous qualitative change before any upper limits imposed by the laws of physics or theoretical computation set in. It is speculated that over many iterations, such an AI would far surpass human cognitive abilities. Intelligence explosion is a possible outcome of humanity building artificial general intelligence AGI.
AGI would be capable of recursive self-improvement, leading to the rapid emergence of artificial superintelligence ASIthe limits of which are unknown, shortly after technological singularity is achieved. Good speculated in 1965 that artificial general intelligence might bring about an intelligence explosion. He speculated on the effects of superhuman machines, should they ever be invented 16.
Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an intelligence explosion, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.
Good s scenario runs as follows as computers increase in power, it becomes possible for people to build a machine that is more intelligent than humanity; this superhuman intelligence possesses greater problem-solving and inventive skills than current humans are capable of. These iterations of recursive self-improvement accelerate, allowing enormous qualitative change before any upper limits imposed by the laws of physics or theoretical computation set in.
Emergence of superintelligence Edit. Good s intelligence explosion model predicts that a future superintelligence will trigger a singularity. This superintelligent machine then designs an even more capable machine, or re-writes its own software to become even more intelligent; this even more capable machine then goes on to design a machine of yet greater capability, and so on. A superintelligence, hyperintelligence, or superhuman intelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds.
They argue that it is difficult or impossible for present-day humans to predict what human beings lives would be like in a post-singularity world. John von Neumann, Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil define the concept in terms of the technological creation of super intelligence. Superintelligence may also refer to the form or degree of intelligence possessed by such an agent. Technology forecasters and researchers disagree about if or when human intelligence is likely to be surpassed.
Some argue that advances in artificial intelligence AI will probably result in general reasoning systems that lack human cognitive limitations. Others believe that humans will evolve or directly modify their biology so as to achieve radically greater intelligence. A number of futures studies scenarios combine elements from both of these possibilities, suggesting that humans are likely to interface with computers, or upload their minds to computers, in a way that enables substantial intelligence amplification.
Non-AI singularity Edit. Some writers use the singularity in a broader way to refer to any radical changes in our society brought about by new technologies such as molecular nanotechnology, 18 19 20 although Vinge and other writers specifically state that without superintelligence, such changes would not qualify as a true singularity.
Speed superintelligence Edit. A speed superintelligence describes an AI that can do everything that a human can do, where the only difference is that the machine runs faster. 21 For example, with a million-fold increase in the speed of information processing relative to that of humans, a subjective year would pass in 30 physical seconds. 22 Such a difference in information processing speed could drive the singularity. Many prominent technologists and academics dispute the plausibility of a technological singularity, including Paul Allen, Jeff Hawkins, John Holland, Jaron Lanier, and Gordon Moore, whose law is often cited in support of the concept.
Most proposed methods for creating superhuman or transhuman minds fall into one of two categories intelligence amplification of human brains and artificial intelligence. The speculated ways to produce intelligence augmentation are many, and include bioengineering, genetic engineering, nootropic drugs, AI assistants, direct brain computer interfaces and mind uploading.
Because multiple paths to an intelligence explosion are being explored, it makes a singularity more likely; for a singularity to not occur they would all have to fail. Robin Hanson expressed skepticism of human intelligence augmentation, writing that once the low-hanging fruit of easy methods for increasing human intelligence have been exhausted, further improvements will become increasingly difficult to find.
27 Despite all of the speculated ways for amplifying human intelligence, non-human artificial intelligence specifically seed AI is the most popular option among the hypotheses that would advance the singularity. 28 The first accelerating factor is the new intelligence enhancements made possible by each previous improvement. Each improvement should beget at least one more improvement, on average, for movement towards singularity to continue.
Whether or not an intelligence explosion occurs depends on three factors. Finally, the laws of physics will eventually prevent any further improvements. Contrariwise, as the intelligences become more advanced, further advances will become more and more complicated, possibly overcoming the advantage of increased intelligence. There are two logically independent, but mutually reinforcing, causes of intelligence improvements increases in the speed of computation, and improvements to the algorithms used.
29 The former is predicted by Moore s Law and the forecasted improvements in hardware, 30 and is comparatively similar to previous technological advances. But there are some AI researchers who. who believe software is more important than hardware. 31 citation needed. A 2017 email survey of authors with publications at the 2015 NeurIPS and ICML machine learning conferences asked about the chance of an intelligence explosion.
Of the respondents, 12 said it was quite likely17 said it was likely21 said it was about even24 said it was unlikely and 26 said it was quite unlikely. Speed improvements Edit. Both for human and artificial intelligence, hardware improvements increase the rate of future hardware improvements. Simply put, 33 Moore s Law suggests that if the first doubling of speed took 18 months, the second would take 18 subjective months; or 9 external months, whereafter, four months, two months, and so on towards a speed singularity.
34 An upper limit on speed may eventually be reached, although it is unclear how high this would be. Jeff Hawkins has stated that a self-improving computer system would inevitably run into upper limits on computing power in the end there are limits to how big and fast computers can run. We would end up in the same place; we d just get there a bit faster. There would be no singularity. It is difficult to directly compare silicon-based hardware with neurons. But Berglas 2008 notes that computer speech recognition is approaching human capabilities, and that this capability seems to require 0.
This analogy suggests that modern computer hardware is within a few orders of magnitude of being as powerful as the human brain. 01 of the volume of the brain. Exponential growth Edit. The exponential growth in computing technology suggested by Moore s law is commonly cited as a reason to expect a singularity in the relatively near future, and a number of authors have proposed generalizations of Moore s law.
Computer scientist and futurist Hans Moravec proposed in a 1998 book 36 that the exponential growth curve could be extended back through earlier computing technologies prior to the integrated circuit. Ray Kurzweil postulates a law of accelerating returns in which the speed of technological change and more generally, all evolutionary processes 37 increases exponentially, generalizing Moore s law in the same manner as Moravec s proposal, and also including material technology especially as applied to nanotechnologymedical technology and others.
Kurzweil reserves the term singularity for a rapid increase in artificial intelligence as opposed to other technologieswriting for example that The Singularity will allow us to transcend these limitations of our biological bodies and brains. 38 Between 1986 and 2007, machines application-specific capacity to compute information per capita roughly doubled every 14 months; the per capita capacity of the world s general-purpose computers has doubled every 18 months; the global telecommunication capacity per capita doubled every 34 months; and the world s storage capacity per capita doubled every 40 months.
There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine. 40 He also defines his predicted date of the singularity 2045 in terms of when he expects computer-based intelligences to significantly exceed the sum total of human brainpower, writing that advances in computing before that date will not represent the Singularity because they do not yet correspond to a profound expansion of our intelligence.
Accelerating change Edit. Some singularity proponents argue its inevitability through extrapolation of past trends, especially those pertaining to shortening gaps between improvements to technology. In one of the first uses of the term singularity in the context of technological progress, Stanislaw Ulam tells of a conversation with John von Neumann about accelerating change. One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.
Kurzweil claims that technological progress follows a pattern of exponential growth, following what he calls the law of accelerating returns. Whenever technology approaches a barrier, Kurzweil writes, new technologies will surmount it. He predicts paradigm shifts will become increasingly common, leading to technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
42 Kurzweil believes that the singularity will occur by approximately 2045. 43 His predictions differ from Vinge s in that he predicts a gradual ascent to the singularity, rather than Vinge s rapidly self-improving superhuman intelligence. Oft-cited dangers include those commonly associated with molecular nanotechnology and genetic engineering. These threats are major issues for both singularity advocates and critics, and were the subject of Bill Joy s Wired magazine article Why the future doesn t need us.
Algorithm improvements Edit. Some intelligence technologies, like seed AI14 15 may also have the potential to not just make themselves faster, but also more efficient, by modifying their source code. These improvements would make further improvements possible, which would make further improvements possible, and so on. The mechanism for a recursively self-improving set of algorithms differs from an increase in raw computation speed in two ways.
First, it does not require external influence machines designing faster hardware would still require humans to create the improved hardware, or to program factories appropriately. citation needed An AI rewriting its own source code could do so while contained in an AI box. Second, as with Vernor Vinge s conception of the singularity, it is much harder to predict the outcome. While speed increases seem to be only a quantitative difference from human intelligence, actual algorithm improvements would be qualitatively different.
Eliezer Yudkowsky compares it to the changes that human intelligence brought humans changed the world thousands of times more rapidly than evolution had done, and in totally different ways. Similarly, the evolution of life was a massive departure and acceleration from the previous geological rates of change, and improved intelligence could cause change to be as different again.
There are substantial dangers associated with an intelligence explosion singularity originating from a recursively self-improving set of algorithms. First, the goal structure of the AI might not be invariant under self-improvement, potentially causing the AI to optimise for something other than what was originally intended. 46 47 Secondly, AIs could compete for the same scarce resources mankind uses to survive. Carl Shulman and Anders Sandberg suggest that algorithm improvements may be the limiting factor for a singularity; while hardware efficiency tends to improve at a steady pace, software innovations are more unpredictable and may be bottlenecked by serial, cumulative research.
While not actively malicious, there is no reason to think that AIs would actively promote human goals unless they could be programmed as such, and if not, might use the resources currently used to support mankind to promote its own goals, causing human extinction. They suggest that in the case of a software-limited singularity, intelligence explosion would actually become more likely than with a hardware-limited singularity, because in the software-limited case, once human-level AI is developed, it could run serially on very fast hardware, and the abundance of cheap hardware would make AI research less constrained.
53 An abundance of accumulated hardware that can be unleashed once the software figures out how to use it has been called computing overhang. Criticisms Edit. Some critics, like philosopher Hubert Dreyfus, assert that computers or machines cannot achieve human intelligence, while others, like physicist Stephen Hawking, hold that the definition of intelligence is irrelevant if the net result is the same.
Psychologist Steven Pinker stated in 2008. There is not the slightest reason to believe in a coming singularity. The fact that you can visualize a future in your imagination is not evidence that it is likely or even possible. Look at domed cities, jet-pack commuting, underwater cities, mile-high buildings, and nuclear-powered automobiles all staples of futuristic fantasies when I was a child that have never arrived.
Sheer processing power is not a pixie dust that magically solves all your problems. Computers have, literally. no intelligence, no motivation, no autonomy, and no agency. We design them to behave as if they had certain sorts of psychology, but there is no psychological reality to the corresponding processes or behavior. T he machinery has no beliefs, iqoption blog, or motivations. Martin Ford in The Lights in the Tunnel Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future 57 postulates a technology paradox in that before the singularity could occur most routine jobs in the economy would be automated, since this would require a level of technology inferior to that of the singularity.
Job displacement is increasingly no longer limited to work traditionally considered to be routine. This would cause massive unemployment and plummeting consumer demand, which in turn would destroy the incentive to invest in the technologies that would be required to bring about the Singularity. Evidence for this decline is that the rise in computer clock rates is slowing, even while Moore s prediction of exponentially increasing circuit density continues to hold.
This is due to excessive heat build-up from the chip, which cannot be dissipated quickly enough to prevent the chip from melting when operating at higher speeds. Advances in speed may be possible in the future by virtue of more power-efficient CPU designs and multi-cell processors. Theodore Modis 59 60 and Jonathan Huebner 61 argue that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.
62 While Kurzweil used Modis resources, and Modis work was around accelerating change, Modis distanced himself from Kurzweil s thesis of a technological singularityclaiming that it lacks scientific rigor. In a detailed empirical accounting, The Progress of ComputingWilliam Nordhaus argued that, prior to 1940, computers followed the much slower growth of a traditional industrial economy, thus rejecting extrapolations of Moore s law to 19th-century computers. In a 2007 paper, Schmidhuber stated that the frequency of subjectively notable events appears to be approaching a 21st-century singularity, but cautioned readers to take such plots of subjective events with a grain of salt perhaps differences in memory of recent and distant events could create an illusion of accelerating change where none exists.
A study of the number of patents shows that human creativity does not show accelerating returns, but in fact, as suggested by Joseph Tainter in his The Collapse of Complex Societies65 a law of diminishing returns. The number of patents per thousand peaked in the period from 1850 to 1900, and has been declining since.
Paul Allen argued the opposite of accelerating returns, the complexity brake; 26 the more progress science makes towards understanding intelligence, the more difficult it becomes to make additional progress. Jaron Lanier refutes the idea that the Singularity is inevitable. 61 The growth of complexity eventually becomes self-limiting, and leads to a widespread general systems collapse. He states I do not think the technology is creating itself.
It s not an autonomous process. 66 He goes on to iqoption blog The reason to believe in human agency over technological determinism is that you can then have an economy where people earn their own way and invent their own lives. If you structure a society on not emphasizing individual human agency, it s the same thing operationally as denying people clout, dignity, and self-determination.
to embrace the idea of the Singularity would be a celebration of bad data and bad politics. Economist Robert J. Gordon, in The Rise and Fall of American Growth The U. Standard of Living Since the Civil War 2016points out that measured economic growth has slowed around 1970 and slowed even further since the financial crisis of 2007 2008, and argues that the economic data show no trace of a coming Singularity as imagined by mathematician I.
In addition to general criticisms of the singularity concept, several critics have raised issues with Kurzweil s iconic chart. One line of criticism is that a log-log chart of this nature is inherently biased toward a straight-line result. Others identify selection bias in the points that Kurzweil chooses to use. For example, biologist PZ Myers points out that many of the early evolutionary events were picked arbitrarily.
68 Kurzweil has rebutted this by charting evolutionary events from 15 neutral sources, and showing that they fit a straight line on a log-log chart. The Economist mocked the concept with a graph extrapolating that the number of blades on a razor, which has increased over the years from one to as many as five, will increase ever-faster to infinity. Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement.
Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world s economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.
The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. Uncertainty and risk Edit. The term technological singularity reflects the idea that such change may happen suddenly, and that it is difficult to predict how the resulting new world would operate. 71 72 It is unclear whether an intelligence explosion resulting in a singularity would be beneficial or harmful, or even an existential threat.
73 74 Because AI is a major factor in singularity risk, a number of organizations pursue a technical theory of aligning AI goal-systems with human values, including the Future of Humanity Institute, the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, 71 the Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of Life Institute. Physicist Stephen Hawking said in 2014 that Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks.
75 Hawking believed that in the coming decades, AI could offer incalculable benefits and risks such as technology outsmarting financial markets, out-inventing human researchers, out-manipulating human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand. 75 Hawking suggested that artificial intelligence should be taken more seriously and that more should be done to prepare for the singularity 75.
So, facing possible futures of incalculable benefits and risks, the experts are surely doing everything possible to ensure the best outcome, right. If a superior alien civilisation sent us a message saying, We ll arrive in a few decades, would we just reply, OK, call us when you get here we ll leave the lights on. Evolution has no inherent tendency to produce outcomes valued by humans, and there is little reason to expect an arbitrary optimisation process to promote an outcome desired by mankind, rather than inadvertently leading to an AI behaving in a way not intended by its creators.
76 77 78 Anders Sandberg has also elaborated on this scenario, addressing various common counter-arguments. Probably not but this is more or less what is happening with AI. Berglas 2008 claims that there is no direct evolutionary motivation for an AI to be friendly to humans. 79 AI researcher Hugo de Garis suggests that artificial intelligences may simply eliminate the human race for access to scarce resources, 48 80 and humans would be powerless to stop them.
81 Alternatively, AIs developed under evolutionary pressure to promote their own survival could outcompete humanity. Bostrom 2002 discusses human extinction scenarios, and lists superintelligence as a possible cause. When we create the first superintelligent entity, we might make a mistake and give it goals that lead it to annihilate humankind, assuming its enormous intellectual advantage gives it the power to do so.
For example, we could mistakenly elevate a subgoal to the status of a supergoal. We tell it to iqoption blog a mathematical problem, and it complies by turning all the matter in the solar system into a giant calculating device, in the process killing the person who asked the question. According to Eliezer Yudkowsky, a significant problem in AI safety is that unfriendly artificial intelligence is likely to be much easier to create than friendly AI.
While both require large advances in recursive optimisation process design, friendly AI also requires the ability to make goal structures invariant under self-improvement or the AI could transform itself into something unfriendly and a goal structure that aligns with human values and does not automatically destroy the human race. An unfriendly AI, on the other hand, can optimize for an arbitrary goal structure, which does not need to be invariant under self-modification.
82 Bill Hibbard 2014 harvtxt error no target CITEREFBill_Hibbard2014 help proposes an AI design that avoids several dangers including self-delusion, 83 unintended instrumental actions, 46 84 and corruption of the reward generator. 84 He also discusses social impacts of AI 85 and testing AI. 86 His 2001 book Super-Intelligent Machines advocates the need for public education about AI and public control over AI.
It also proposed a simple design that was vulnerable to corruption of the reward generator. Next step of sociobiological evolution Edit. While the technological singularity is usually seen as a sudden event, some scholars argue the current speed of change already fits this description. In addition, some argue that we are already in the midst of a major evolutionary transition that merges technology, biology, and society.
Digital technology has infiltrated the fabric of human society to a degree of indisputable and often life-sustaining dependence. A 2016 article in Trends in Ecology Evolution argues that humans already embrace fusions of biology and technology. We spend most of our waking time communicating through digitally mediated channels. we trust artificial intelligence with our lives through antilock braking in cars and autopilots in planes.
With one in three marriages in America beginning online, digital algorithms are also taking a role in human pair bonding and reproduction. The article further argues that from the perspective of the evolution, several previous Major Transitions in Evolution have transformed life through innovations in information storage and replication RNA, DNA, multicellularity, and culture and language.
In the current stage of life s evolution, the carbon-based biosphere has generated a cognitive system humans capable of creating technology that will result in a comparable evolutionary transition. 5 years, reaching about 5 zettabytes in 2014 5 10 21 bytes. The digital information created by humans has reached a similar magnitude to biological information in the biosphere. Since the 1980s, the quantity of digital information stored has doubled about every 2. 2 billion nucleotides.
In biological terms, there are 7. Since one byte can encode four nucleotide pairs, the individual genomes of every human on the planet could be encoded by approximately 1 10 19 bytes. The digital realm stored 500 times more information than this in 2014 see figure. The total amount of DNA contained in all of the cells on Earth is estimated to be about 5. 3 10 37 base pairs, equivalent to 1. 325 10 37 bytes of information. 2 billion humans on the planet, each having a genome of 6.
If growth in digital storage continues at its current rate of 30 38 compound annual growth per year, 39 it will rival the total information content contained in all of the DNA in all of the cells on Earth in about 110 years. In February 2009, under the auspices of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence AAAIEric Horvitz chaired a meeting of leading computer scientists, artificial intelligence researchers and roboticists at Asilomar in Pacific Grove, California.
The goal was to discuss the potential impact of the hypothetical possibility that robots could become self-sufficient and able to make their own decisions. This would represent a doubling of the amount of information stored in the biosphere across a total time period of just 150 years. Implications for human society Edit. They discussed the extent to which computers and robots might be able to acquire autonomy, and to what degree they could use such abilities to pose threats or hazards.
Some machines are programmed with various forms of semi-autonomy, including the ability to locate their own power sources and choose targets to attack with weapons. Also, some computer viruses can evade elimination and, according to scientists in attendance, could therefore be said to have reached a cockroach stage of machine intelligence.
The conference attendees noted that self-awareness as depicted in science-fiction is probably unlikely, but that other potential hazards and pitfalls exist. Robinson predicts that once humans achieve a machine with the intelligence of a human, scientific and technological problems will be tackled and solved with brainpower far superior to that of humans. He notes that artificial systems are able to share data more directly than humans, and predicts that this would result in a global network of super-intelligence that would dwarf human capability.
89 Robinson also discusses how vastly different the future would potentially look after such an intelligence explosion. One example of this is solar energy, where the Earth receives vastly more solar energy than humanity captures, so capturing more of that solar energy would hold vast promise for civilizational growth. In a hard takeoff scenario, an AGI rapidly self-improves, taking control of the world perhaps in a matter of hourstoo quickly for significant human-initiated error correction or for a gradual tuning of the AGI s goals.
In a soft takeoff scenario, AGI still becomes far more powerful than humanity, but at a human-like pace perhaps on the order of decadeson a timescale where ongoing human interaction and correction can effectively steer the AGI s development. Ramez Naam argues against a hard takeoff by pointing out that we already see recursive self-improvement by superintelligences, such as corporations. For instance, Intel has the collective brainpower of tens of thousands of humans and probably millions of CPU cores to.
design better CPUs. However, this has not led to a hard takeoff; rather, it has led to a soft takeoff in the form of Moore s law. 93 Naam further points out that the computational complexity of higher intelligence may be much greater than linear, such that creating a mind of intelligence 2 is probably more than twice as hard as creating a mind of intelligence 1. Ben Goertzel agrees with Hall s suggestion that a new human-level AI would do well to use its intelligence to accumulate wealth.
The AI s talents might inspire companies and governments to disperse its software throughout society. Hall suggests that rather than recursively self-improving its hardware, software, and infrastructure all on its own, a fledgling AI would be better off specializing in one area where it was most effective and then buying the remaining components on the marketplace, because the quality of products on the marketplace continually improves, and the AI would have a hard time keeping up with the cutting-edge technology used by the rest of the world.
Goertzel is skeptical of a very hard, 5-minute takeoff but thinks a takeoff from human to superhuman level on the order of 5 years is reasonable. He calls this a semihard takeoff. Max More disagrees, arguing that if there were only a few superfast human-level AIs, they wouldn t radically change the world, because they would still depend on other people to get things done and would still have human cognitive constraints.
More also argues that a superintelligence would not transform the world overnight, because a superintelligence would need to engage with existing, slow human systems to accomplish physical impacts on the world. The need for collaboration, for organization, and for putting ideas into physical iqoption blog will ensure that all the old rules are not thrown out overnight or even within years. Even if all superfast AIs worked on intelligence augmentation, it s not clear why they would do better in a discontinuous way than existing human cognitive scientists at producing super-human intelligence, although the rate of progress would increase.
In his 2005 book, The Singularity is NearKurzweil suggests that medical advances would allow people to protect their bodies from the effects of aging, making the life expectancy limitless. Storrs Hall believes that many of the more commonly seen scenarios for overnight hard takeoff are circular they seem to assume hyperhuman capabilities at the starting point of the self-improvement process in order for an AI to be able to make the dramatic, domain-general improvements required for takeoff.
Kurzweil argues that the technological advances in medicine would allow us to continuously repair and replace defective components in our bodies, prolonging life to an undetermined age. 98 Kurzweil further buttresses his argument by discussing current bio-engineering advances. Kurzweil suggests somatic gene therapy; after synthetic viruses with specific genetic information, the next step would be to apply this technology to gene therapy, replacing human DNA with synthesized genes.
Eric Drexler, one of the founders of nanotechnology, postulated cell repair devices, including ones operating within cells and utilizing as yet hypothetical biological machines, in his 1986 book Engines of Creation. According to Richard Feynman, it was his former graduate student and collaborator Albert Hibbs who originally suggested to him circa 1959 the idea of a medical use for Feynman s theoretical micromachines.
Hibbs suggested that certain repair machines might one day be reduced in size to the point that it would, in theory, be possible to as Feynman put it swallow the doctor. The idea was incorporated into Feynman s 1959 essay There s Plenty of Room at the Bottom. Beyond merely extending the operational life of the physical body, Jaron Lanier argues for a form of immortality called Digital Ascension that involves people dying in the flesh and being uploaded into a computer and remaining conscious.
A paper by Mahendra Prasad, published in AI Magazineasserts that the 18th-century mathematician Marquis de Condorcet was the first person to hypothesize and mathematically model an intelligence explosion and its effects on humanity. An early description of the idea was made in John Wood Campbell Jr. s 1932 short story The last evolution. In his 1958 obituary for John von Neumann, Ulam recalled a conversation with von Neumann about the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.
In 1965, Good wrote his essay postulating an intelligence explosion of recursive self-improvement of a machine intelligence. In 1981, Stanisław Lem published his science fiction novel Golem XIV. It describes a military AI computer Golem XIV who obtains consciousness and starts to increase his own intelligence, moving towards personal technological singularity. Golem XIV was originally created to aid its builders in fighting wars, but as its intelligence advances to a much higher level than that of humans, it stops being interested in the military requirement because it finds them lacking internal logical consistency.
In 1983, Vernor Vinge greatly popularized Good s intelligence explosion in a number of writings, first addressing the topic in print in the January 1983 issue of Omni magazine. Iqoption blog will soon create intelligences greater than our own. When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity, an intellectual transition as impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole, and the world will pass far beyond our understanding. In this op-ed piece, Vinge seems to have been the first to use the term singularity in a way that was specifically tied to the creation of intelligent machines 103 104.
This singularity, I believe, already haunts a number of science-fiction writers. It makes realistic extrapolation to an interstellar future impossible. To write a story set more than a century hence, one needs a nuclear war in between. so that the world remains intelligible. In 1985, in The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligenceartificial intelligence researcher Ray Solomonoff articulated mathematically the related notion of what he called an infinity point if a research community of human-level self-improving AIs take four years to double their own speed, then two years, then one year and so on, their capabilities increase infinitely in finite time.
Vinge s 1993 article The Coming Technological Singularity How to Survive in the Post-Human Era7 spread widely on the internet and helped to popularize the idea. 106 This article contains the statement, Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. Vinge argues that science-fiction authors cannot write realistic post-singularity characters who surpass the human intellect, as the thoughts of such an intellect would be beyond the ability of humans to express.
In 2000, Bill Joy, a prominent technologist and a co-founder of Sun Microsystems, voiced concern over the potential dangers of the singularity. Kurzweil s publicity campaign included an appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. In 2005, Kurzweil published The Singularity is Near. In 2007, Eliezer Yudkowsky suggested that many of the varied definitions that have been assigned to singularity are mutually incompatible rather than mutually iqoption blog.
In 2009, Kurzweil and X-Prize founder Peter Diamandis announced the establishment of Singularity University, a nonaccredited private institute whose stated mission is to educate, inspire and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity s grand challenges. Good s proposed discontinuous upswing in intelligence and Vinge s thesis on unpredictability. 109 Funded by Google, Autodesk, ePlanet Ventures, and a group of technology industry leaders, Singularity University is based at NASA s Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California.
The not-for-profit organization runs an annual ten-week graduate program during summer that covers ten different technology and allied tracks, and a series of executive programs throughout the year. 19 108 For example, Kurzweil extrapolates current technological trajectories past the arrival of self-improving AI or superhuman intelligence, which Yudkowsky argues represents a tension with both I.
It predicts significant technological and political changes in the mid-term future, including possible technological singularity. Former President of the United States Barack Obama spoke about singularity in his interview to Wired in 2016 113. One thing that we haven t talked about too much, and I just want to go back to, is we really have to think through the economic implications.
Because most people aren t spending a lot of time right now worrying about singularity they are worrying about Well, is my job going to be replaced by a machine. In 2007, the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress released a report about the future of nanotechnology. Hello, we re Tes. We power schools and enable great teaching worldwide, by creating intelligent online products and services to make the greatest difference in education.
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